- Different sources, e.g. Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE), Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), IEA expect capacity bottlenecks already by 2009.
- Major drivers for capacity bottlenecks:
– Ageing power plants
– Volatile gas prices (driven by oil prices)
– Supply constraints for power plant components, scarcity of consented sites
– Lengthy approval procedures for interconnector extensions
– Political risks threatening investment plans for power plants and networks
– Special drivers:
• Nuclear phase out in Germany
• Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) in UK
• Increased peak-load demand in France
• Volatile hydro reservoir levels in Spain, Scandinavia, Austria, Switzerland
• Decommissioning of old nuclear reactors in new EU member states